Tag Archives: labour party

Green Party Gains Gorton and Denton in historic win

The Green Party’s Hannah Spencer has won the by-electon in Gorton and Denton which took place yesterday and secured her place as the fifth Green MP in Parliament.

The Greens crushed Reform and Labour, securing over 40% of the vote in a performance that defied even the most optimistic polling.

This by-election win represents a victory for hope and progressive politics over the tactics of division and hate used by the other parties.

For more on what this victory could mean, check out our post from yesterday.

Green win in Gorton and Denton would be the reset Britain Needs

A Green win in Gorton & Denton would be the Reset Britain Needs

Voters go to the polls today in the Gorton & Denton by-election to choose a new member of Parliament.

The election appears to be a close three-horse raise between Labour (defending the seat), Reform UK and the Green Party.

Whoever wins, the maths in Parliament won’t change very much. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party will still have a massive majority and another 3 years or so to cling onto power until the next general election.

However, the result of this election is bound to determine the future of political discourse in the UK For years to come.

If Labour win, Starmer’s position as leader and Prime Minister will be safe and his team will claim it as proof that the country backs his vision.

If Reform UK win, we will no doubt see a further lurch to the far-right. Those of us in the know understand that this wouldn’t represent a change in a direction, but the acceleration of British decline.

Only if the Greens win will there be a great reset in British politics. The Greens will have won this election fighting from the left, and a win here would force Labour bigwigs to reconsider their strategy under Starmer.

Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK have become a homogenous blob of parties that manage the decline of our public services while blaming immigrants and minorities for the problems caused by politicians.

The Greens are the only party standing up and saying: Tax the rich, put public assets back in the public’s hands, stop demonising migrants and start rebuilding a Britain that works for everyone.

Voters in Gorton & Denton have a chance to choose the direction taken by the whole country going forward. If you have that power in your hands today, make sure you get out there and use it wisely.

WestminsterPrediction

Prediction: Labour landslide may come on similar vote share to 2019

With three weeks to go until the general election, our modelling predicts that Labour may win a landslide victory with 391 seats on a very similar share of the votes to that achieved by Jeremy Corbyn’s party in 2019. This result would surely strengthen the case for electoral reform in the UK.

Where the parties stand 3 weeks out

Clearly since the start of the campaign Labour and the Conservatives have lost ground compared to the smaller parties. Our model doesn’t conform to the exact numbers being shown in mainstream opinion polls, but rather applies the general direction of travel from them to the actual results of the most recent local elections.

Here’s where the parties stand on our model 3 weeks out from the election:

PartyPredicted VotePredicted SeatsChange w/ 2019
🌹 Labour34.6%391+194
🌳 Conservatives22.1%144-232
πŸ”Ά Liberal Democrats14.8%64+56
🌻 Greens11.0%2+1
➑️ Reform10.7%3+3
πŸŽ—οΈ SNP3.3%21-27
πŸ‘€ Other3.5%25+5

Why are the Lib Dems and the Greens higher than Reform when opinion polls say otherwise?

Simply put: parties’ capacity on the ground is important. Before the local elections in May, Reform were polling 12.8% on average in opinion polls… but in seats where all 5 major parties had candidates they actually only got 9.6% compared to the Greens’ 10.8% and the Lib Dems’ 13.8%.

The Green Party and the Liberal Democrats are parties with long histories and tens of thousands of genuine grassroots activists to knock on doors and get their vote out. Reform is popular because they are platformed disproportionately on TV, but they don’t really have the ground game to back it up and we think our model will prove itself come polling day.

The funny, if rather unsettling thing about this prediction is that Labour would win a massive Parliamentary majority on 34.6% of the vote, when Jeremy Corbyn famously got crushed in 2019 after winning 32.1% of the vote. No doubt the ruling right-wing of the Labour Party would attempt to claim this as a masterful victory, but the reality is it would lay bare our broken voting system and strengthen calls for proportional representation.

As a final thought – under PR, the seat total could look more like this: LAB 225, CON 144, LD 96, GRN 72, RFM 70, SNP 21, OTH 22.

labour_purge

Labour purges left-wing MPs right before general election

The ruling right-wing of the Labour party has begun deselecting left-of-centre MPs and candidates en masse as the general elections looms.

Earlier in the year the party blocked Jeremy Corbyn from standing in Islington North, even though he remained a Labour member and had the support of his local Labour Party. After the general election was called, Corbyn revealed he would stand as an independent candidate and was fully expelled from his party.

Finally rid of Corbyn, you’d be forgiven for thinking the Labour Party leadership would stop there and try to maintain the illusion that the party is a “broad church”. But in the last few days it appears that Starmer’s team have taken the decision to purge left-wing candidates from the general election entirely.

Diane Abbott, long time Corbyn ally and MP for Hackney, was given the Labour whip back earlier this week before rumours immediately started to fly that she would be blocked from standing for the party in the next election.

Lloyd Russell-Moyle, the left-leaning MP for Brighton Kemptown, was suspended from the Labour Party today after a “complaint” was made right before the dissolution of parliament, meaning he won’t be Labour’s candidate at the upcoming election.

Rumours (read: leaks to the press from Labour insiders) are circulating that other left wing candidates – like Faiza Shaheen, Apsana Begum and Zarah Sultana – are also about to face deselection by the leader’s office.

On the other hand, the party has been parachuting extremely right-wing, small-c conservative candidates into safe seats – like Luke Akehurst who has been announced as Labour’s candidate for North Durham.

The question now is, what will deselected Labour candidates, left-wing Labour activists and their outriders in the media do about this? Are they going to lie down and take it, and campaign for a right-wing Labour landslide government? Or will they finally say “enough is enough” and throw their weight behind a genuinely left-wing party with a chance of causing an upset, like the Greens?

As the nomination deadline approaches, all eyes are on disgruntled Labour activists to see whether they’re willing to instigate the biggest political earthquake this country has ever known (and desperately needs).

Westminster Election

Sunak calls General Election for July 4th

Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of the UK, has called a general election for July 4th, 2024. Political parties will now begin 6 weeks of campaigning to see who will win the election and form the next British government.

A soggy Sunak, standing outside 10 Downing Street in the pouring rain, announced that he had already spoken to King Charles III to ask him to dissolve parliament and call a general election for the 4th of July.

We’re using our own prediction model which takes the result of the 2024 local elections back on May 2nd and applies swing from national opinion polling since then. This model finds that Labour would win with a majority of 160 if the election were held right now…

PartyPredicted Vote SharePredicted SeatsChange vs. 2019
🌹 Labour36.5%405+203
🌳 Conservatives23.7%135-230
πŸ”Ά Liberal Democrats13.8%64+53
🌻 Greens11.3%3+2
➑️ Reform8.2%0–
πŸŽ—οΈ SNP3.1%19-29
πŸ‘€ Other3.4%24+1

Of course, the election isn’t being held right now. It’s being held after a 6 week campaign where the parties will go to the country with their manifestos and try to win the public over.

We’ll keep our coverage and predictions coming throughout the next 6 weeks.

the unfortunate rise of yimbyism

The unfortunate rise of YIMBYism

Britain currently faces multiple crises in housing, energy, transport, the cost of living and healthcare – as well as the global threat of climate change. The scale of the challenge facing the next government is immense, investment in British infrastructure will need to increase drastically in the coming years to get this country back on its feet again.

Unfortunately the pressing need for action has driven mainstream politicians, especially in the Labour Party, into a dangerous and incurious mindset that can be summed up quite simply as: Build first, ask questions later.

They’ve even created an informal coalition of campaigners proudly wearing a new label: YIMBY. β€œYes in my back yard, to anything, no questions asked,” while those who do ask important questions and oppose harmful developments are attacked as busybodies who want the UK to fail, rather than sensible voices ensuring Britain’s progress is safe and fair.

There’s an understandable sense of urgency behind YIMBY thinking. We don’t have much time to fix the UK’s crumbling infrastructure and broken economy – it’s making people miserable right now. So when a new property development, road or power station is proposed it’s only natural that there will be a clamour of supportive voices.

But we also know that a rush to support solutions without due care and attention creates the disasters of the future. Developers in the past were allowed, even encouraged, to use dangerous materials like asbestos, porous concrete and flammable cladding in thousands of buildings. People who raised concerns were dismissed then as they are dismissed now.

The Green Party, who launched their manifesto for the local elections last week, are often on the receiving end of criticism for asking inconvenient but important questions.

Their plans to ease the housing crisis by building 150,000 new council homes, bringing unused properties into residential use and introducing rent controls have been attacked by YIMBYs in lockstep with property developers and private landlords. Those who derive their wealth from property are more than happy to build unaffordable, low quality new homes in the wrong places as long as it means they can boost their profits.

Where the Green Party promises to exercise caution and pursue higher standards for future homes, the YIMBYs are desperate to write a blank cheque for the profiteers in the name of solving the housing crisis. Their folly now will simply create more crises in future.

The Greens recognise, rightly, that new homes must be built to tackle the housing crisis. But they must not be new homes at any cost to the environment. New homes whose tenants will be unhappy, unhealthy or charged extortionate rents.

Any credible plan to tackle the housing crisis must involve building new social housing, homes people can actually afford to buy, and the surrounding infrastructure to support new homeowners and tenants. New homes must be built not only with the housing crisis in mind – but also with an eye on climate change and biodiversity loss.

Long may there continue to be sensible voices in the room asking the right questions at the right time. We’ll be thanking them in future for making sure that the solutions to one crisis didn’t create more problems for our children & grandchildren.

green_labour_article

Labour leftists looking for a win should embrace the Greens

These days you’d be hard-pressed to find a left-leaning Labour member who’s happy with the direction their party is taking. Keir Starmer’s leadership campaign pitched him as Corbyn-lite, but three years on he’s positioned himself to the right of the Conservatives. Long gone are the pledges of nationalised utilities, freedom of movement and a foreign policy based on peace and justice. Instead, Starmer’s Labour is a party of big business, harsh immigration rules and war in the middle east.

Understandably many left-wing activists have abandoned Labour and cancelled their memberships, while others choose to stay inside the party machine and criticise Starmer from the sidelines. In both camps we see great swathes of disaffected but passionate activists promising to boycott the next election entirely, resigned to five more years of misery.

These people have more power than they think. They’re still following politics, tweeting tweets, writing letters, signing petitions, and attending protests. Under Corbyn they were the whirlwind force of door knockers and leaflet posters who delivered the stunning upset of the 2017 general election.

If all of that energy could be channelled into a focused political movement, a truly left-wing party with progressive policies and grassroots decision-making at its core, Sunak and Starmer could face their own shock at the ballot box next year. This movement, this fantasy political party already exists: The Green Party.

The overlap between Corbyn’s Manifesto – even Starmer’s ten broken pledges – and Green Party policy is immense. Economic justice through higher taxes on the rich, abolishing tuition fees, promoting peace instead of war, public ownership of utilities, defending migrants’ rights, strengthening trade unions and of course bold action on climate change. These are all staples of Green Party policy.

Not only do they exist and share the Labour left’s top priorities, The Green Party are clearly capable of winning enough votes to break the Labour/Tory duopoly. Currently polling at an average of 6%, the Greens peaked at 12% in a national election as recently as 2019, convincing nearly two million voters to back them at the European Parliament elections. All this with a mere fraction of the funding and membership numbers of Labour or the Conservatives.

With the addition of thousands of former Labour members the Greens could see a surge in voting intention similar to the leftward shift we saw in the summer of 2017. What the Greens lack in balanced media coverage, a problem Corbyn’s Labour also faced, can always be overcome with people power.

And it’s not like this new influx of members would be outsiders working for a rival party. They would have agency and ownership within the party. Unlike Labour or the Conservatives, the Green Party’s policies are made by the membership, local parties choose their own MPs and leadership elections happen automatically every two years. If a Keir Starmer-style Thatcherite ever lied their way to the Green leadership, they would not be able to purge the left, overhaul party policy or impose right-wing MPs on local parties.

With a strong Green Party as a left-wing option on the ballot paper, with the right number of passionate activists to make them a viable force in British politics, this country doesn’t have to face five more years of Red or Blue Conservative government. We can have real, meaningful change for the better. Leftists should embrace the Green Party with open arms and set off the political earthquake this country desperately needs.