Tag Archives: united kingdom

Westminster Election

Sunak calls General Election for July 4th

Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of the UK, has called a general election for July 4th, 2024. Political parties will now begin 6 weeks of campaigning to see who will win the election and form the next British government.

A soggy Sunak, standing outside 10 Downing Street in the pouring rain, announced that he had already spoken to King Charles III to ask him to dissolve parliament and call a general election for the 4th of July.

We’re using our own prediction model which takes the result of the 2024 local elections back on May 2nd and applies swing from national opinion polling since then. This model finds that Labour would win with a majority of 160 if the election were held right now…

PartyPredicted Vote SharePredicted SeatsChange vs. 2019
๐ŸŒน Labour36.5%405+203
๐ŸŒณ Conservatives23.7%135-230
๐Ÿ”ถ Liberal Democrats13.8%64+53
๐ŸŒป Greens11.3%3+2
โžก๏ธ Reform8.2%0
๐ŸŽ—๏ธ SNP3.1%19-29
๐Ÿ‘ค Other3.4%24+1

Of course, the election isn’t being held right now. It’s being held after a 6 week campaign where the parties will go to the country with their manifestos and try to win the public over.

We’ll keep our coverage and predictions coming throughout the next 6 weeks.

GreensOnTheRise

Polls show the Greens have a chance to achieve greatness in 2024

The Green Party are currently averaging around 6% in opinion polls – enough to win 2 seats at the general election this year. It hardly sounds like a breakthrough, but beyond headline voting intention there’s a story developing that gives hope for a Green surge in 2024. Let’s take a look…

Keir Starmer is deeply unpopular

Despite Labour being, on average, 20+ points ahead in the opinion polls, Keir Starmer is a deeply unpopular figure among the general public. Around 44% of people currently intend to vote Labour at the general election this year, but according to Ipsos only 25% of the public approve of the job Keir Starmer is doing as Labour leader. 56% are dissatisfied. For Labour this is quite a worrying starting point to kick off a general election campaign.

Green Party policies, dropped by Labour, are popular with the public

According to surveys by YouGov, the general public consistently and overwhelmingly support policies to tackle climate change and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050; rent controls; nationalisation of rail, mail, energy, healthcare and water; A higher minimum wage; higher taxes on the rich and peace in the middle east. Keir Starmer has largely abandoned the progressive, left-wing policy platform on which he won the Labour Leadership election in 2020, and has instead positioned the Labour Party as socially conservative, pro-big business and pro-privatisation in order to court favour with the right wing press.

The public really, actually like the Green Party

Opinion polling regularly shows that the Green Party are the most “liked” party in the UK, the Green candidate for the 2024 London Mayoral election is the only one with a net positive favourability rating, in preferential elections voters often give Greens a hefty number of second preference votes, voters regularly believe “good” fictional characters like Father Christmas & Doctor Who would vote Green and a recent Ashcroft poll asking the likelihood that voters will back each party in a general election put the Greens on a whopping 13%. Voters genuinely like the Green Party – the Greens are the “good guys”. When voters know the Greens have a chance of winning – in elections with proportional voting systems – they vote Green in much larger numbers than in first-past-the-post elections.

So What?

According to current headline voting intention, Labour will win in an absolute landslide victory at the next General Election. The Conservatives will be decimated – maybe even wiped out entirely – and the Greens will gain only a handful of seats at best. But that’s not the whole story. Keir Starmer’s deeply unpopular Labour Party is winning by default, so can the Greens capitalise on their popularity with the public and present themselves as a credible alternative to voters?

Many voters would love to vote Green, but don’t think they can win elections. The Green Party’s task over the coming months is not just to make the public like them, it’s to help the public truly believe that voting Green means electing a Green MP. That it’s not a wasted vote. That they can wake up one sunny Friday morning in 2024 to many, many Green voices in Parliament, not just 1 or 2 or 4. This will be the true test of Carla Denyer & Adrian Ramsay’s leadership. Their legacy.

Four our sakes, let’s hope they meet the scale of the challenge.

Scottish Greens Logo

Scottish Greens to hold vote on continuing SNP alliance

The Scottish Greens are set to hold a vote on whether to continue governing Scotland in a power-sharing deal with the SNP. The Greens and the SNP have been in power together in Scotland since signing the Bute House Agreement in August 2021. This week the power-sharing deal came under fresh strain as Scotland was forced to ditch climate targets.

The parties have also had their differences over support for Trans rights, with the Greens being staunchly pro-LGBT and the SNP having a mixed record of supporting and opposing more rights for trans and non-binary people.

Following a difficult week for both the Scottish Greens and the SNP, the Greens will hold an extraordinary meeting where members can vote on whether or not to continue sharing power with the SNP in Scotland or return to opposition. It’s understood that Green co-leaders Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie will encourage members to vote in favour of continuing the alliance with the SNP.

the unfortunate rise of yimbyism

The unfortunate rise of YIMBYism

Britain currently faces multiple crises in housing, energy, transport, the cost of living and healthcare – as well as the global threat of climate change. The scale of the challenge facing the next government is immense, investment in British infrastructure will need to increase drastically in the coming years to get this country back on its feet again.

Unfortunately the pressing need for action has driven mainstream politicians, especially in the Labour Party, into a dangerous and incurious mindset that can be summed up quite simply as: Build first, ask questions later.

They’ve even created an informal coalition of campaigners proudly wearing a new label: YIMBY. โ€œYes in my back yard, to anything, no questions asked,โ€ while those who do ask important questions and oppose harmful developments are attacked as busybodies who want the UK to fail, rather than sensible voices ensuring Britain’s progress is safe and fair.

There’s an understandable sense of urgency behind YIMBY thinking. We don’t have much time to fix the UK’s crumbling infrastructure and broken economy – it’s making people miserable right now. So when a new property development, road or power station is proposed it’s only natural that there will be a clamour of supportive voices.

But we also know that a rush to support solutions without due care and attention creates the disasters of the future. Developers in the past were allowed, even encouraged, to use dangerous materials like asbestos, porous concrete and flammable cladding in thousands of buildings. People who raised concerns were dismissed then as they are dismissed now.

The Green Party, who launched their manifesto for the local elections last week, are often on the receiving end of criticism for asking inconvenient but important questions.

Their plans to ease the housing crisis by building 150,000 new council homes, bringing unused properties into residential use and introducing rent controls have been attacked by YIMBYs in lockstep with property developers and private landlords. Those who derive their wealth from property are more than happy to build unaffordable, low quality new homes in the wrong places as long as it means they can boost their profits.

Where the Green Party promises to exercise caution and pursue higher standards for future homes, the YIMBYs are desperate to write a blank cheque for the profiteers in the name of solving the housing crisis. Their folly now will simply create more crises in future.

The Greens recognise, rightly, that new homes must be built to tackle the housing crisis. But they must not be new homes at any cost to the environment. New homes whose tenants will be unhappy, unhealthy or charged extortionate rents.

Any credible plan to tackle the housing crisis must involve building new social housing, homes people can actually afford to buy, and the surrounding infrastructure to support new homeowners and tenants. New homes must be built not only with the housing crisis in mind – but also with an eye on climate change and biodiversity loss.

Long may there continue to be sensible voices in the room asking the right questions at the right time. Weโ€™ll be thanking them in future for making sure that the solutions to one crisis didn’t create more problems for our children & grandchildren.

green_labour_article

Labour leftists looking for a win should embrace the Greens

These days you’d be hard-pressed to find a left-leaning Labour member who’s happy with the direction their party is taking. Keir Starmer’s leadership campaign pitched him as Corbyn-lite, but three years on he’s positioned himself to the right of the Conservatives. Long gone are the pledges of nationalised utilities, freedom of movement and a foreign policy based on peace and justice. Instead, Starmer’s Labour is a party of big business, harsh immigration rules and war in the middle east.

Understandably many left-wing activists have abandoned Labour and cancelled their memberships, while others choose to stay inside the party machine and criticise Starmer from the sidelines. In both camps we see great swathes of disaffected but passionate activists promising to boycott the next election entirely, resigned to five more years of misery.

These people have more power than they think. They’re still following politics, tweeting tweets, writing letters, signing petitions, and attending protests. Under Corbyn they were the whirlwind force of door knockers and leaflet posters who delivered the stunning upset of the 2017 general election.

If all of that energy could be channelled into a focused political movement, a truly left-wing party with progressive policies and grassroots decision-making at its core, Sunak and Starmer could face their own shock at the ballot box next year. This movement, this fantasy political party already exists: The Green Party.

The overlap between Corbyn’s Manifesto – even Starmer’s ten broken pledges – and Green Party policy is immense. Economic justice through higher taxes on the rich, abolishing tuition fees, promoting peace instead of war, public ownership of utilities, defending migrants’ rights, strengthening trade unions and of course bold action on climate change. These are all staples of Green Party policy.

Not only do they exist and share the Labour left’s top priorities, The Green Party are clearly capable of winning enough votes to break the Labour/Tory duopoly. Currently polling at an average of 6%, the Greens peaked at 12% in a national election as recently as 2019, convincing nearly two million voters to back them at the European Parliament elections. All this with a mere fraction of the funding and membership numbers of Labour or the Conservatives.

With the addition of thousands of former Labour members the Greens could see a surge in voting intention similar to the leftward shift we saw in the summer of 2017. What the Greens lack in balanced media coverage, a problem Corbyn’s Labour also faced, can always be overcome with people power.

And it’s not like this new influx of members would be outsiders working for a rival party. They would have agency and ownership within the party. Unlike Labour or the Conservatives, the Green Party’s policies are made by the membership, local parties choose their own MPs and leadership elections happen automatically every two years. If a Keir Starmer-style Thatcherite ever lied their way to the Green leadership, they would not be able to purge the left, overhaul party policy or impose right-wing MPs on local parties.

With a strong Green Party as a left-wing option on the ballot paper, with the right number of passionate activists to make them a viable force in British politics, this country doesn’t have to face five more years of Red or Blue Conservative government. We can have real, meaningful change for the better. Leftists should embrace the Green Party with open arms and set off the political earthquake this country desperately needs.