Author Archives: Earthize

About Earthize

Game developer, font designer and founder of earthize.org, involved in green activism for over a decade.

Green Party Gains Gorton and Denton in historic win

The Green Party’s Hannah Spencer has won the by-electon in Gorton and Denton which took place yesterday and secured her place as the fifth Green MP in Parliament.

The Greens crushed Reform and Labour, securing over 40% of the vote in a performance that defied even the most optimistic polling.

This by-election win represents a victory for hope and progressive politics over the tactics of division and hate used by the other parties.

For more on what this victory could mean, check out our post from yesterday.

Green win in Gorton and Denton would be the reset Britain Needs

A Green win in Gorton & Denton would be the Reset Britain Needs

Voters go to the polls today in the Gorton & Denton by-election to choose a new member of Parliament.

The election appears to be a close three-horse raise between Labour (defending the seat), Reform UK and the Green Party.

Whoever wins, the maths in Parliament won’t change very much. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party will still have a massive majority and another 3 years or so to cling onto power until the next general election.

However, the result of this election is bound to determine the future of political discourse in the UK For years to come.

If Labour win, Starmer’s position as leader and Prime Minister will be safe and his team will claim it as proof that the country backs his vision.

If Reform UK win, we will no doubt see a further lurch to the far-right. Those of us in the know understand that this wouldn’t represent a change in a direction, but the acceleration of British decline.

Only if the Greens win will there be a great reset in British politics. The Greens will have won this election fighting from the left, and a win here would force Labour bigwigs to reconsider their strategy under Starmer.

Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK have become a homogenous blob of parties that manage the decline of our public services while blaming immigrants and minorities for the problems caused by politicians.

The Greens are the only party standing up and saying: Tax the rich, put public assets back in the public’s hands, stop demonising migrants and start rebuilding a Britain that works for everyone.

Voters in Gorton & Denton have a chance to choose the direction taken by the whole country going forward. If you have that power in your hands today, make sure you get out there and use it wisely.

10000 Game Assets Pack by Chequered Ink

Chequered Ink launches pack of 10,000 game assets to combat the rise of generative AI

At Chequered Ink, we’re launching a pack of 10,000 game assets across a variety of genres to give budding developers an alternative to AI.

The asset pack contains over 9,000 graphics for Platformers, RPGs, Puzzle games, Board games and more, as well as over 700 sound effects.

So many developers these days are turning to generative AI for their placeholders, prototypes and even shipped titles.

We know that the use of AI, especially for image and audio generation, is causing a spike in energy demand, bills, and carbon emissions. The most popular AI models are often trained, without permission, on copyrighted content.

That’s why we’ve spent the best part of the past year making and releasing assets for developers to use in their games. Now we’ve gathered all of those files into one big pack of over 10,000 game assets, including exclusive content we’ve never released before.

We want to save developers time and money so they don’t feel the need to turn to AI to make their games. Stories will always be better told when they’re crafted with human hands, even if teams need to turn to existing assets to fill in the gaps in their projects.

The wide range of genres and styles represented in the asset pack will allow developers lots of room for creativity. The simple, clean style of the HD assets makes them easy to adapt and build upon for larger projects.

Meanwhile, the pack also contains thousands of pixel art sprites, for games with a more retro feel. We’ve even included a tool that allows teams to make their own characters by combining different parts – with millions of combinations possible.

This is just the beginning. Our ongoing mission will be to create more and more graphics and sounds for people to use in their games, by hand, so that we can continue to watch new developers flourish without the need for generative AI.

The 10,000 Game Assets Pack launches on December 1st on our website: chequered.ink, with a 50% discount on launch.

NOTE: Chequered Ink is the company that owns & runs earthize.org.

A sprite of a spaceship zapping the Facebook logo with a green laserbeam

Operation Disinfect Facebook

Many of us Millennials and Zoomers helped older, less tech-savvy members of our family and friends get on Facebook. In the early days it seemed like a good idea. Our parents, grandparents and extended relatives could check out our holiday pics and hot takes at their own leisure, even when we were far apart.

Unfortunately, we couldn’t have foreseen that a platform once designed for simply staying in touch could be turned into a hotbed of extremism which is very quickly poisoning our communities. Hop on your local area’s Facebook group, and you’ll see a stream of disturbing content. It usually starts on fake news pages, run by political actors, and disseminates through the accounts of regular people until eventually it reaches the eyeballs of the people you hold dearest.

So what’s the plan?

Action 1: Cleanse your family’s timelines

If you meet the two following conditions, you really have a duty to act: 1, you’ve noticed a problem with your relatives sharing or talking about extremist content they saw on Facebook; and 2, you set up their account / you usually help them with tech issues.

What you need to do is cleanse your family’s timeline to prevent extremist, far-right content from showing to them in the first place. With their permission, use their phone or PC to scroll down the Facebook timeline while logged into their account. Any time you come across a post with extreme, far-right themes, click the name of the page that shared it and block it:

Sometimes if you click the dots (…) in the top-right of a post, there will be an option to tell Facebook you are not interested in a post. This will be very effective in training the Facebook algorithm not to show similar content to your relatives. You can do this before you block each page, if you like.

If you do this enough times, even over the course of just 10-15 minutes, you should be able to block enough far-right content that Facebook’s algorithm will start showing less of it to your relative.

Action 2: Engage with your local community on Facebook

Ideally none of us would be beholden to owning and using a Facebook account to generate income for Mark Zuckerberg, but the reality is it exists, billions of people use it, and if progressives don’t then right-wing extremists will have free reign over its content.

You can help by logging into your Facebook, joining your local residents group, and posting positive, progressive content there. You can find a local group pretty easily by typing the name of where you live into the Facebook search box, for example “Bristol Residents Group“.

This is potentially not for the faint-hearted. The trick is not to read and engage with far-right content which may also be posted in those groups. Adding reactions and replies to far-right content just makes it appear in more people’s timelines. Instead, what you want to do is post and amplify positive, progressive content. Ignoring any negative feedback you get, and posting positive reactions.

Share news stories about what local progressive political parties, community groups and charities are doing in your area. Share positive messaging about how migrants and LGBT people have contributed to your local community. Take the fear that extremists are pushing of the “other” and turn it on its head. Educate your peers.

Action 3: Rebrand political pages to increase visibility

One thing progressives love to do is create very political brands for their social media accounts. “Socialists for Corbyn!” or “Lefty and Proud!” or similar, you’ve probably seen them yourself and you get the picture.

The vast majority of people, however, are not politically engaged in this way. They won’t follow a page named after a political party or philosophy. What they will do is follow community pages, or pages about issues that speak to people’s hearts. The far-right are fully aware of this and have been creating pages for years with names like “I love Doncaster” or “Animal-loving Brits“… then they simply use them to post their normal political content that they would post anywhere else.

If you are the social media officer for a local progressive party or group – I would highly recommend naming your Facebook page something which will be universally appealing (We love Walsall! etc.) and then post your regular progressive messaging there. People will trust it far more coming from a pillar of the local community than they will from a political party or group they distrust already, and we can hopefully start to shift the Overton window on issues such as migration, LGBT rights and wealth redistribution.

Conclusion / TL;DR

Facebook is still popular with a huge chunk of voters, who are currently being served a worrying amount of far-right content. Those of us who want to resist and overcome should take action:

  • With your family’s permission, clear out their Facebook timeline of far-right content.
  • Post progressive content on local Facebook community groups – but don’t get drawn into arguments.
  • Rebrand your political pages to be more universally appealing, and continue to post progressive content there.
power up and resist - earthize.org's new logo alongside Chequered Ink's logo

Power Up and Resist – Our New Mission

Earthize has been running for nearly two years now, and we’re proud to have made some little difference in the world. But it’s not enough – we haven’t been playing to our strengths, and that’s why it’s time for a shake up.

I first founded Earthize Ltd and kept it separate from my other work at Chequered Ink in order to keep the two identities independent from each other. I wanted Earthize to stand alone as a new way of encouraging people to live sustainably. But because of this, I was spread too thin, running the site all on my own, with a brand too stuffy and too far removed from real life.

As of today, earthize.org will come into the Chequered Ink family, and we will do what we do best. We are going to write about the things we care about through the main lens we know: our work in games & tech. The tech industry is at the forefront of the fight against climate change and fascism. Scratch that, all too often these days, the tech industry is the cause of more climate change and more fascism.

It’s time to use our position and our skills to do more to make a noise in this industry. Through advocacy, journalism, working with charities and NGOs, and supporting progressive content creators; we will push forward the values we hold dear:

  • Sustainability: building an industry which fights climate change & protects nature
  • Progressive values: protecting the LGBTIQA+ community, migrants and other marginalised peoples
  • Wealth redistribution: for a world where everyone’s needs are met

Our day-to-day work gives us a platform, and spring board, from which we can help to make the world a better place. From now on, we’ll be making good use of it.

If you’re using game development or tech to promote values similar to these, please get in touch with us as we’d love to put a spotlight on your work in future articles!

Blame The Rich

Blame the rich: Greens must hammer home this message

The cost of living crisis hasn’t gone away. If you read the newspapers or watch the TV, you might think that the biggest problem Britain faces is a few small boats landing on shores. The truth is, families in the UK are still struggling. Utility bills are sky high. Weekly shops are still vastly more expensive than they should be. Benefits are being reduced, withheld, even scrapped by the Labour government.

Who is to blame for the problems facing our country, then? The poor people on boats who just this second turned up? Obviously not, and yet, nobody is pointing fingers at the real culprits. Labour, Reform and the Conservative Party are all on an anti-immigrant, anti-trans, anti-poor, anti-disabled rampage. Blaming as many minorities and vulnerable groups as they possibly can. To protect these people, to direct the blame to where it is truly deserved, and to win over the public, the Green Party must adopt a radical narrative of The People vs. The Profiteers.

The Cost of Profit Crisis

The cost of living crisis – rumbling on now for at least five years – has always been framed as an unavoidable consequence of external factors. First Covid, then the war in Ukraine, now Gaza and of course, if you’re Reform UK, “Net Zero”. Of course the truth is, the cost of living crisis is caused purely by private profits. An upward redistribution of wealth from the People to the Profiteers. Private companies and their shareholders are draining money out of the pockets of ordinary people, out of the British economy, and into their already-bloated bank accounts.

Take supermarkets, for example. I’m personally still struggling with shopping bills significantly higher than they used to be, I’m sure you are too. If this was caused by external factors we might expect to see a dent in the supermarkets profits, but do we? No. Last year, 2024, Tesco made £2.8 billion in profit, Waitrose £1.1 billion, Sainsbury’s £1 billion, ASDA upwards of £1 billion (2023) and M&S £620 million. This is profit – money earned after expenses. After paying staff. Pure profit.

These supermarkets could be paying their staff more, or charging their customers less, and they choose not to.

What about utility bills? Surely gas & electricity companies have been badly hit by instability in Ukraine and the middle east? Of course not. Last year, Centrica (the owners of British Gas) made £1.5 billion in profit. In 2023, EDF Energy’s French Parent Company made €39.9 billion in profit. In 2022, E.ON SE made €2.2 billion in profit.

Again this is all pure profit, after expenses. These companies can absolutely afford to lower our bills or pay their staff more and they don’t. If we nationalised gas & electricity in the UK, those profits could indeed be used to lower rates, invest in infrastructure, or pay for day to day government spending.

The list of companies and individuals earning extreme profits at the public expense goes on and on.

An Opportunity for The Greens

The Green Party already knows all of this. We already have the policies that would correct the problem. Renationalisation of key industries, wealth taxes on the super rich, a universal basic income. So why not start shouting from the rooftops about it?

The Green Party has professionalised its image over the last few years, which has helped us to win more council seats and four members of parliament. But we now need radical action to tackle the real problems Britain faces, and to protect the vulnerable communities being used as scapegoats by the far-right.

We know Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK won’t stand up to the Profiteers. The Liberal Democrats and the SNP, while commendable for their relative civility, are ultimately parties of capital, with donors who expect them to toe the line. Only The Green Party is in a position to go to bat for The People against The Profiteers. It’s time we accepted that role and got far more radical with our messaging.

That’s why I’m standing the Green Party’s elections to become External Communications Co-ordinator. It’s time for the Greens to adopt a bolder narrative, on social media, on TV, in newspapers and on the doorstep. Only by filling the vacuum of ideas on the left can we grow as a movement and fix Britain’s problems at the same time.

(Promoted and produced by Daniel Johnston as part of his campaign for election to the post of External Communications Co-ordinator. This is not an official communication from the Green Party of England and Wales.)

Fruit and Veg

Tips for buying the most eco-friendly fruit & veg

There’s no one brand of fruit or veg we’ll recommend here, buying these is a decision best made based on the availability of good ingredients in the shops near you. To help make the best decisions, here are four tips for choosing fruit, veg and herbs:

1. Buy from independent stores

If there’s an independent greengrocers near you, or a farmer’s market, try shopping there. You’ll be cutting out the middleman (supermarkets) and getting your greens from as close to the source as possible.

Not only will this reduce CO2 emissions via air miles & shipping of food, but money will be going back into your local economy instead of into the pockets of big companies!

2. Buy organic

If the option is available, and you can afford it, try to by only organic fruits and vegetables.

Organic produce hasn’t been grown with harmful chemicals which contribute to the destruction of nature and the decrease in populations of bees and other important insects.

3. Avoid plastic packaging

If the retailer has an option between produce wrapped in plastic and fresh produce – opt for the fresh stuff.

If you don’t like putting your veggies straight into your basket, maybe take your own reusable bag or container with you to keep your goodies clean on your way to the counter.

4. Buy British

Obviously you won’t be able to get your hands on British bananas or avocados, but if your local shop has a choice always buy the produce from closest to home. You’ll be helping the economy and reducing the freight miles and carbon footprint of your food.

If you’re reading this from elsewhere in the world – shop local too!

Eco Friendly Hand Soap

Eco-friendly Hand Soap

Looking for eco-friendly soaps that are plastic-free and good for your skin? Check out our favourite brands. First off, we’re only showing soap bars here. Liquid soap always creates more demand for plastic, however some of the brands below do make liquid soap as well for those of you who prefer it!

Faith in Nature

Faith in Nature soap bars are vegan, with compostable, plastic-free packaging and come in a wide variety of beguiling scents. Their products are becoming increasingly available in high street stores, making them easier to work into your shopping routine.

LUSH

Buying soap as a gift? Try visiting your local LUSH store. LUSH soap is cruelty free, plastic-free and has more of a luxury feel than some of the simpler brands in our guide.

Alter/Native by Suma

Suma is a co-operative selling all kinds of groceries, health and beauty products and other household items. They’re ethical, and their soaps are vegan and plastic free. If you want a great place to grab a bunch of ethical household items at once, check them out online.

Hand Blocks

Hand Blocks are totally solid soap bars by the team who also brought the world “Shower Blocks”. Like the other brands on the list, they make a variety of plastic-free soap products. The main difference is the branding is a bit more masculine – maybe buy them for a sceptical husband or boyfriend to get them on board the zero-plastic bandwagon!

Friendly Soap

Vegan & Plastic-free, in our experience Friendly soaps have much more subtle fragrances. So for those of you who don’t like your soap to come with an overpowering scent, these are little more nose-friendly.

Bio-D Soap

Vegan, Plastic-Free and with over 65% organic content, Bio-D soap bars are a potentially great addition to any bathroom or kitchen. They sell other healthy, beauty and household cleaning products too!

General Election Coverage - a picture of a cartoon ballot box on a pale green background

General Election 2024 Coverage

🔴 Live reporting: 650 out of 650 seats declared. 326 seats needed to win.

412
▲211
121
▼251
72
▲64
5
▲5
4
▲3
36
▼31
LAB CON LDM REF GRN OTH

Popular Vote

LAB33.7%
CON23.7%
REF14.3%
LDM12.2%
GRN6.7%
OTH9.3%

Key Points

  • Labour win massive 412 seat landslide victory on just 34% of the vote, with fewer votes overall than Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party received in 2019.
  • The Green Party wins all 4 target seats Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire.
  • Tories wiped out as Reform eat into their vote.

    Final Prediction In Pictures

    Final Prediction: Labour Majority of 176

    My final prediction of the election campaign, based on an average of national polls weighted by the situation on the ground in recent local elections.

    Labour 413
    Conservatives 108
    Lib Dems 78
    Reform 8
    Green 4
    SNP 15
    Others 24

    My view is that Labour will not achieve an astonishingly large percentage of the national vote share – probably Starmer will entice fewer voters in total than Corbyn did in 2017, maybe even 2019. This low turnout will help boost the Conservatives, but with Reform UK still picking off a large chunk of their voters, Labour will win a landslide anyway.

    I’ve got the Greens and the Liberal Democrats on more seats than most other models because they have incredibly strong ground game – something missing from Reform & the Conservatives in particular at this election. Recent constituency polling suggests the Greens will in fact win all 4 of their target seats.

    Stay tuned for more coverage of the election after polls close tomorrow at 10pm.

    Carla Denyer, Green Party candidate for Bristol, next to a bar chart showing the Green Party on 49% of the vote and Labour on 40%

    Greens set to take Bristol Central – Poll

    A new constituency-level poll by WeThinkPolling / Omnisis shows voters in Bristol Central are backing the Green Party’s Carla Denyer over the Labour Incumbent, Thangam Debbonaire, by 49% to 40%. This comes hot on the heels of two constituency-level polls showing the Green Party on course to win Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire, sparking our prediction that the Greens will win at least four seats at the general election.

    In even more damning news for Debbonaire, who is currently set to be the culture secretary in Keir Starmer’s post-election cabinet, when presented with a simplified two-horse race between the Greens in Bristol Central voters opted 68% – 32% in favour of the Green Party against Labour.

    Whatever the outcome of the election for the major parties on Thursday, it seems clear that the Greens are set to have a surprisingly good night defying national polling and various MRP projections.

    vegetable_chilli

    Quick & Delicious Vegetarian Chili Recipe

    Want to cook a spicy family favourite for Friday night but not sure where to get started? Check out our recipe for a delicious vegetarian / vegan chili which is quick and easy to prepare!

    Ingredients

    • 🧅 1 brown onion
    • 🫑 1 bell pepper
    • 🍳 cooking oil (we use rapeseed)
    • 🧄 3 cloves garlic
    • 🍅 1 tin of chopped tomatoes
    • 🫘 1 tin of cooked kidney beans or black beans
    • 🥘 1 vegetable stock cube
    • 🌶️ A sprinkle of ground chili pepper or hot cayenne pepper (to personal taste)
    • 🌿 A sprinkle of oregano
    • 🫙 A sprinkle of cumin
    • 🍚 Rice
    • 🫔 Vegetarian or vegan mince substitute (e.g. Quorn) – optional

    Method

    1. Chop the onion & the pepper into small pieces.
    2. Heat a splash of oil in a saucepan and fry the onion & pepper until soft.
    3. Crush the garlic and throw it into the pan for a couple of minutes.
    4. Throw in the tin of chopped tomatoes & the tin of beans, stir and bring to the boil.
    5. Crumble in the stock cube and add the spices (pepper, oregano and cumin).
    6. Lower the heat, put a lid on the pan and leave to simmer. Stir occasionally so it doesn’t stick to the bottom.
    7. Bring some water to the boil and cook your rice according to the instructions on the packaging.
    8. Throw the vegetarian or vegan mince substitute into your sauce according the the instructions (with Quorn, that’ll be 12 minutes before the rice is finished cooking).
    9. Serve up the rice roughly half and half with the chili sauce.

    Extra Tips

    • You can cook your sauce for just as long as the rice (12-20 minutes) and it will still taste nice, but if you start cooking it a bit earlier and give it 30-40 minutes in the pan it will have a richer flavour.
    • As shown in the picture accompanying the article, why not try this dish with nachos? Delicious!
    greenest mobile phones

    What are the most eco-friendly mobile phones in 2024?

    First things first: The most eco-friendly mobile phone is the one you already have. The longer you can hang on to your phones in general, the better, since every time we get new phones more tech waste is created.

    But let’s say you need need a new phone. Which ones are the most eco-friendly on the market today?

    Fairphone 5

    Fairphone is by far the most environmentally friendly and ethical phone on the market today. Fairphone is electronic waste-neutral, reusing or recyling the same weight of old phones per new phone they create. Their phones are easily repairable and built to last, with software support planned up to 2031.

    Out of the box the phone runs on Android 13, has 8GB RAM, 256GB storage, 3 cameras with a maximum resolution of 50MP and a 6.4″ screen with a resolution of 1224×2700.

    Unlike previous models, the Fairphone 5 holds its own with other flagship phones on the market today and is created in a far more ethical way.

    Teracube 2e

    Teracube is a slightly cheaper model of sustainable phone, with a new option called “Thrive” for children which is even cheaper. The phone is easily repairable, boasts a four-year warranty and a reduced carbon footprint in the manufacturing process. It runs Android 11, has 4GB RAM, 64GB storage, 3 cameras with a maximum resolution of 13MP and a 6.1″ screen with a resolution of 720×1560.

    In terms of technical specifications, it’s certainly several years behind other phones on the market, but it’s cheap and eco-friendly.

    Eco-friendly Mobile Networks

    Want to learn how your monthly phone bill can help save nature? Check out our article on the UK’s most eco-friendly mobile networks.

    Restore nature by changing your search engine

    Restore nature by changing your search engine

    You can help save the planet by doing something you already do several times every single day. By switching your search engine to Ecosia, you’ll be helping reforestation projects every time you search.

    What is Ecosia?

    Ecosia Logo

    Ecosia is a search engine like Google or Bing. You type what you want into the search bar, and it shows you results – simple!

    What makes Ecosia special is that they use the revenue they generate from every search to fund reforestation projects. You even get your own personalised counter showing how many trees you have contributed to planting.

    Changing your search engine to Ecosia is a small thing you can do for free that will have a huge positive impact on the environment. Why not check it out?

    How do I use it?

    To use Ecosia on your PC, Simply go to Ecosia.org in your web browser and search the same way you would with any other search engine. Ecosia will prompt you to install a plugin if your web browser supports it. This plugin changes your default search engine to Ecosia so you can search straight from the address bar!

    Ecosia also has an app for both Android devices and iPhones. Simply install the app and use it as your web browser. Alternatively, you can change the settings in your current web browser to make Ecosia the default search engine.

    Does it really work?

    Yes it does! Check out this story about how I convinced my local council to use Ecosia as their search engine, and they funded the planting of 3,600 trees in 2 years.

    online_shopping

    Online Shopping – Alternatives to Amazon, Temu and AliExpress

    Sometimes it can be hard to break free from the big, bad online shopping brands when you’re looking for that one book, or that quirky little gift. Take a look at our guide to more ethical, eco-friendly online shopping to learn where you can find all the things you need in better places!

    This article contains affiliate links (marked with *).

    Bookshop.org – Books

    Bookshop.org supports local bookshops, raising over £3,000,000 for them at the time of writing. It’s also a certified B corporation, which means they’re ethical and environmentally responsible.

    Ethical Superstore – Wide Range

    Ethical superstore sell a huge range of products including groceries, cleaning products, clothing, home & garden decorations, beauty products, baby products, gifts, pet food and more. We would consider most of the brands sold there to be eco-friendly.

    Etsy – Quirky Gifts

    Etsy is a marketplace where people come to buy and sell handmade, vintage and custom goods. The website is chock-full of great gift ideas made by individuals and small businesses – and the whole website is powered by 100% renewable energy! You’ll need to check with each supplier to make sure the products are truly eco-friendly.

    Hive – Books & Entertainment

    Hive started as an online bookstore giving money back to local bookshops, but now they’ve expanded to sell CDs, DVDs, Vinyls, Gifts and Stationery. Some products there aren’t inherently environmentally-friendly, but use your judgement wisely and Hive can be a great place to buy ethical gifts.

    Plastic Freedom – Wide Range

    Plastic Freedom started small with big dreams, and they’ve definitely all come true. It’s a vibrant, sprawling online marketplace with beauty products, cleaning products, clothes, accessories, furniture, tech goods and more. The vast majority of products there are either plastic-free or recycled.

    Social Supermarket – Wide Range

    Social supermarket sell a big range of products including cosmetics, toys, stationery, kitchenware, clothes, accessories, food, drink and gifts. They’re a certified B corporation, which means they’re ethical and environmentally responsible.

    PredictionJune21

    Prediction: Greens will out-perform nationwide polls, win 4 seats

    As Labour and the Conservatives take a tumble in the opinion polls, it becomes harder and harder to predict the outcome of the upcoming general election. So hard in fact, that we’re stopping our series of seat prediction posts.

    MRP polls from major reputable pollsters and producing wildly different results, and are almost completely based on guesswork at this point without any consideration for the facts on the ground.

    It’s this lack of consideration for strong local campaigns which led us to predict far lower vote shares for Labour & Reform, and much higher vote shares for the Lib Dems & the Greens, in our previous two election predictions.

    Now it appears that the Green Party are indeed out-performing national polls and may be on course to win at least 4 seats on July 4th. Two constituency-level polls by Omnisis, where the polling company actually asked people in a target constituency how they are going to vote, show The Green Party winning their target seats in Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire, as reported in The Guardian. It’s widely predicted by most other pollsters and commentators that The Greens will also gain Bristol Central from Labour and retain Brighton Pavilion.

    PartyWaveney Valley Voting IntentionNorth Herefordshire Voting Intention
    🌻 Green Party36%38%
    🌳 Conservative Party23%29%
    🌹 Labour17%15%
    ➡️ Reform UK16%13%
    🐤 Liberal Democrats6%4%

    These figures, from actual polls taken in the constituencies in question, paint a wildly different picture to other prediction models. Electoral Calculus has the Tories in first in both seats, with Labour in second and the Green Party a distant third in Waveney Valley and fourth behind the Liberal Democrats in North Herefordshire.

    Meanwhile, an Ipsos MRP released the other day showed the Green Party winning Waveney Valley on 33% of the vote (so far so good) but with Reform UK in second on 28% – which seems like a drastic overestimate.

    Why is this happening? Why do the national polls seem to be so inaccurate and why are they also saying wildly different things? This is a highly unusual election, where we are seeing the opposite of a “squeeze” in vote share for the smaller parties. The longer the campaign goes on, the more voters are switching from Labour and the Conservatives to the Greens, Reform UK and the Lib Dems.

    The Green Party and the Liberal Democrats have long histories and incredibly strong networks of activists on the ground, which makes it possible for them to do well in targeted seats. Reform UK are polling well nationally because they get a disproportionately large amount of media coverage, and are therefore gaining a kind of “15 minutes of fame”, but they don’t have the members on the ground to deliver victories under First Past The Post voting.

    If the Green Party and its network of activists can continue their good work on the ground, we may well be looking at a significant upset in the polls nationally as well as 4 well-earned seats in Parliament. Only time will tell.

    WestminsterPrediction

    Prediction: Labour landslide may come on similar vote share to 2019

    With three weeks to go until the general election, our modelling predicts that Labour may win a landslide victory with 391 seats on a very similar share of the votes to that achieved by Jeremy Corbyn’s party in 2019. This result would surely strengthen the case for electoral reform in the UK.

    Where the parties stand 3 weeks out

    Clearly since the start of the campaign Labour and the Conservatives have lost ground compared to the smaller parties. Our model doesn’t conform to the exact numbers being shown in mainstream opinion polls, but rather applies the general direction of travel from them to the actual results of the most recent local elections.

    Here’s where the parties stand on our model 3 weeks out from the election:

    PartyPredicted VotePredicted SeatsChange w/ 2019
    🌹 Labour34.6%391+194
    🌳 Conservatives22.1%144-232
    🔶 Liberal Democrats14.8%64+56
    🌻 Greens11.0%2+1
    ➡️ Reform10.7%3+3
    🎗️ SNP3.3%21-27
    👤 Other3.5%25+5

    Why are the Lib Dems and the Greens higher than Reform when opinion polls say otherwise?

    Simply put: parties’ capacity on the ground is important. Before the local elections in May, Reform were polling 12.8% on average in opinion polls… but in seats where all 5 major parties had candidates they actually only got 9.6% compared to the Greens’ 10.8% and the Lib Dems’ 13.8%.

    The Green Party and the Liberal Democrats are parties with long histories and tens of thousands of genuine grassroots activists to knock on doors and get their vote out. Reform is popular because they are platformed disproportionately on TV, but they don’t really have the ground game to back it up and we think our model will prove itself come polling day.

    The funny, if rather unsettling thing about this prediction is that Labour would win a massive Parliamentary majority on 34.6% of the vote, when Jeremy Corbyn famously got crushed in 2019 after winning 32.1% of the vote. No doubt the ruling right-wing of the Labour Party would attempt to claim this as a masterful victory, but the reality is it would lay bare our broken voting system and strengthen calls for proportional representation.

    As a final thought – under PR, the seat total could look more like this: LAB 225, CON 144, LD 96, GRN 72, RFM 70, SNP 21, OTH 22.

    immigration

    Immigration: The Establishment’s Convenient Bogeyman

    Immigration featured heavily, again, in tonight’s ITV election debate. In fact, the issue has featured heavily in every election debate and in public discourse for at least the last 15 years (if not, forever). The Conservatives, Labour, Reform UK and even the Liberal Democrats are all signed up to the establishment consensus: make sure the public are shit scared of immigrants to keep them voting for you.

    You can see why the establishment parties keep flogging this horse – it works! Politicians can drive attention away from their own failures, and from the fact that they’re robbing the public blind, by blaming the “others”, the “foreigners”. The Conservatives have won four elections in a row by doing exactly this, but thankfully it seems the game is well and truly up.

    Still, there aren’t enough public voices speaking out in favour of immigration. For every 1 article like this questioning the establishment narrative, there are 1,000 pushing anti-migrant dogma, shared to the masses via the mainstream media and a network of shady far-right Tweeters and TikTokers.That’s why I’m making it my mission to lay out my positive case for migration here.

    First of all, the philosophical argument for immigration is incredibly strong (we’ll come to practicalities later). Countries and their borders are entirely arbitrary. We’ve made them up, and they change all the time. In the old days they used to change when Kings and Queens rode armies into neighbouring countries and claimed the land for themselves. These days it might be through armed struggle from separatists, or by government decree. Several entirely new countries have come into existence since the year 2000 alone!

    The point is, countries & their borders change all the time. Heck, the concept of countries with borders and passports has existed for a mere fraction of the time that humans have. It is, philosophically speaking, just utterly stupid to accept as fact that we must obey imaginary lines drawn on a map by our politicians, which they can change any time at the flick of a pen.

    My firm belief – and I realise this is quite extreme even for most liberals – is that humans should have a right to roam wherever they please regardless of the geographic area in which they were born (and over which they had no choice!). The vast, overwhelming majority of people on this planet are nice, and kind, and deserve to be welcomed wherever they decide to make their home.

    Having said that, we live in organised societies with limited housing & access to public services, so obviously I have to dial down my fantasy world of free movement and cover the practical arguments for immigration.

    Public services & an ageing population

    Let’s talk practicalities then. The UK has an ageing population. We have a birth rate of just 1.6 children per woman. That means we have a declining population of British-born citizens. Think about it as simply as possible: every couple (2 people) is having less than 2 children. So as couples grow old, retire and eventually pass away, they are not being replaced by the same number of British-born children.

    Every British child who will come of working age within the next 18 years has already been born, and there aren’t enough of them to replace the people in their 60s, 50s and late 40s who will retire in those 18 years. Even if you listen to Labour & Reform UK who say we should “train up our citizens to fill skill shortages”, you have to ask: what citizens??

    If you accept the premise that we need to keep our public services, our economy, running smoothly for the next 18 years, and that we need to replace workers like-for-like, then you come to an obvious conclusion. Even if people suddenly started having more babies right this instant, we would still need net-positive migration for the next 18 years just to keep the economy running. Or else, people will have to retire later (which nobody wants to do either!)

    Large numbers of migrants are currently propping up incredibly important British services like the NHS – but they’re also contributing to our economy more generally in other jobs across many sectors. You’d notice them if they were gone, trust me. Now let’s end with an argument about what kind of country we want to be, and how this debate is pushing away some much-needed talent.

    Family values, dependents & British brain drain

    During this election campaign Nigel Farage has turned his sights on a much more specific subset of migrants: dependents. What does that mean? Who are they? Dependents are husbands, wives, children and other family members who come to the UK on family visas. Some of them are the family members of other migrants who are coming here to work & study, and some of them are the husbands, wives and children of British citizens.

    If you believe in family values, in the idea that people should be allowed to marry & live with the person they love in a stable home, then you should accept the idea that British citizens should be allowed to marry foreign spouses and live with them here in the UK. Nigel Farage’s blanket reduction of migration would break up British families or force British citizens to live abroad in their spouses’ home countries. This potentially leads to a phenomenon where we not only exclude migrants from working in our important public services, as discussed before, but we actually force skilled British workers to leave the country too.

    Not only should British citizens be allowed to live in a stable home with their families, but so should the migrants who come here to work in our economy. Why should we say to a foreign doctor, nurse or care worker: “Yes you can come and work in our NHS, but you have to leave your family in your home country thousands of miles away”. It’s cruel, it’s not in keeping with any of the family values that conservatives usually espouse, and it’s counter-productive – because those migrants may not come to work in our public services at all. We need them.

    Summary

    The debate around immigration in this country is deeply dishonest and incredibly unfair. Right wing politicians are using migrants & their families as political footballs. Preying on the insecurities of British voters to win votes, and quite simply lying about the impact that immigration has on this country.

    The only political parties coming out of this election campaign with an honest and positive view of migration are the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru. Even their principal spokespeople have little first-hand experience of how it feels to be part of a migrant family. While they may articulate the facts, they aren’t quite capable of conveying the emotions felt by many families across the UK like mine.

    Will me and my wife be allowed to live in the UK after July 4th? Do we have the security to start a family of our own? And what about the family we will leave behind if the likes of Nigel Farage force us out? I hope more people will think about these things when marking their ballots on June 4th.

    labour_purge

    Labour purges left-wing MPs right before general election

    The ruling right-wing of the Labour party has begun deselecting left-of-centre MPs and candidates en masse as the general elections looms.

    Earlier in the year the party blocked Jeremy Corbyn from standing in Islington North, even though he remained a Labour member and had the support of his local Labour Party. After the general election was called, Corbyn revealed he would stand as an independent candidate and was fully expelled from his party.

    Finally rid of Corbyn, you’d be forgiven for thinking the Labour Party leadership would stop there and try to maintain the illusion that the party is a “broad church”. But in the last few days it appears that Starmer’s team have taken the decision to purge left-wing candidates from the general election entirely.

    Diane Abbott, long time Corbyn ally and MP for Hackney, was given the Labour whip back earlier this week before rumours immediately started to fly that she would be blocked from standing for the party in the next election.

    Lloyd Russell-Moyle, the left-leaning MP for Brighton Kemptown, was suspended from the Labour Party today after a “complaint” was made right before the dissolution of parliament, meaning he won’t be Labour’s candidate at the upcoming election.

    Rumours (read: leaks to the press from Labour insiders) are circulating that other left wing candidates – like Faiza Shaheen, Apsana Begum and Zarah Sultana – are also about to face deselection by the leader’s office.

    On the other hand, the party has been parachuting extremely right-wing, small-c conservative candidates into safe seats – like Luke Akehurst who has been announced as Labour’s candidate for North Durham.

    The question now is, what will deselected Labour candidates, left-wing Labour activists and their outriders in the media do about this? Are they going to lie down and take it, and campaign for a right-wing Labour landslide government? Or will they finally say “enough is enough” and throw their weight behind a genuinely left-wing party with a chance of causing an upset, like the Greens?

    As the nomination deadline approaches, all eyes are on disgruntled Labour activists to see whether they’re willing to instigate the biggest political earthquake this country has ever known (and desperately needs).

    Westminster Election

    Sunak calls General Election for July 4th

    Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of the UK, has called a general election for July 4th, 2024. Political parties will now begin 6 weeks of campaigning to see who will win the election and form the next British government.

    A soggy Sunak, standing outside 10 Downing Street in the pouring rain, announced that he had already spoken to King Charles III to ask him to dissolve parliament and call a general election for the 4th of July.

    We’re using our own prediction model which takes the result of the 2024 local elections back on May 2nd and applies swing from national opinion polling since then. This model finds that Labour would win with a majority of 160 if the election were held right now…

    PartyPredicted Vote SharePredicted SeatsChange vs. 2019
    🌹 Labour36.5%405+203
    🌳 Conservatives23.7%135-230
    🔶 Liberal Democrats13.8%64+53
    🌻 Greens11.3%3+2
    ➡️ Reform8.2%0
    🎗️ SNP3.1%19-29
    👤 Other3.4%24+1

    Of course, the election isn’t being held right now. It’s being held after a 6 week campaign where the parties will go to the country with their manifestos and try to win the public over.

    We’ll keep our coverage and predictions coming throughout the next 6 weeks.