Final Prediction: Labour Majority of 176

Final Prediction In Pictures

My final prediction of the election campaign, based on an average of national polls weighted by the situation on the ground in recent local elections.

Labour 413
Conservatives 108
Lib Dems 78
Reform 8
Green 4
SNP 15
Others 24

My view is that Labour will not achieve an astonishingly large percentage of the national vote share – probably Starmer will entice fewer voters in total than Corbyn did in 2017, maybe even 2019. This low turnout will help boost the Conservatives, but with Reform UK still picking off a large chunk of their voters, Labour will win a landslide anyway.

I’ve got the Greens and the Liberal Democrats on more seats than most other models because they have incredibly strong ground game – something missing from Reform & the Conservatives in particular at this election. Recent constituency polling suggests the Greens will in fact win all 4 of their target seats.

Stay tuned for more coverage of the election after polls close tomorrow at 10pm.

Daniel Johnston Menezes

Game developer, font designer and founder of, involved in green activism for over a decade.

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